Energy✓ Verified
Predicted 2019→Verified 2022
Nuclear Fusion Would Achieve a Major Breakthrough by the Mid-2020s
In his 2019 Gates Notes year-in-review, Gates expressed belief that fusion energy was closer to practical reality than mainstream opinion suggested, and that new private investment and innovative approaches (rather than large government megaprojects like ITER) would accelerate the timeline dramatically.
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Predicted 2010→Verified 2022
Climate Change Would Cause More Severe Natural Disasters Without Decarbonization
Gates warned in his 2010 TED Talk and subsequent writings that without dramatic reductions in carbon emissions, climate change would accelerate into a cycle of increasingly severe hurricanes, droughts, floods, and wildfires — causing trillions in economic damage and displacing hundreds of millions.
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Predicted 2010→Verified 2020
Solar Energy Would Become Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels
In his TED Talk 'Innovating to Zero!' (2010), Gates argued that energy innovation was critical for climate and predicted that with sustained R&D investment, renewable energy — particularly solar — could achieve cost parity with fossil fuels within a decade.
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