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Energy✓ Verified CorrectPredicted 2019Verified 2022

Nuclear Fusion Would Achieve a Major Breakthrough by the Mid-2020s

What He Predicted

In his 2019 Gates Notes year-in-review, Gates expressed belief that fusion energy was closer to practical reality than mainstream opinion suggested, and that new private investment and innovative approaches (rather than large government megaprojects like ITER) would accelerate the timeline dramatically.

What Actually Happened

December 2022: the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore achieved fusion ignition for the first time — producing more energy from a fusion reaction than the laser energy used to trigger it. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (backed by Gates and others) achieved record magnetic field strength in 2021, on track for a demonstration reactor.

Source: https://www.gatesnotes.com/year-in-review-2019

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